September 28: Another Major Christchurch Earthquake Predicted: How not to assess prophecy

Buildings burn following the September 2010 Christchurch Earthquake

You may not know it but there is quite a buzz going on in some Christian circles as several prophecies are circulating the city, predicting a major earthquake event affecting Christchurch at the end of the month.  Some credence has also been added by other forecasters such as Ken Ring, who bases his theories on the movements of Moon's orbit.

The most widely circulated prophecy can be obtained here.

How should a Christian process such a document?

A written response from a number of prominent Christchurch Protestant church leaders might give us some insight.  Their responses can be found here and here.

All the leaders acknowledge that they cannot definitively rule out that the prophecy is true.  Their call to individual prayer and meditation is also useful and constructive. 

Their causes for doubting it may be summarised as follows:

1. Date and time specific prophecies never come true.
2. We are in an "Age of Grace" so God would never administer judgment like this.
3. God's prophecies are always encouraging and edifying.  This prophecy only promulgates fear and panic.  God wouldn't act like this.
4. Other prominent leaders don't "witness" or feel that God is speaking to them in the same way, confirming it.
5. The source of the prophecy lacks credibility.

It is a useful technique to challenge positions such as these by looking for counter-examples from the bible as a test procedure.  How do these four factors measure up when put through this test?

1. Date and time specific prophecies:  Despite David MacGregor not being able to recall any, in fact there are quite a few prophecies which are date and time specific.  A few biblical examples include: Joseph's prediction of seven years of plentiful harvest, followed by seven years of famine; Moses' prediction that the Firstborn would die from midnight on; Elisha's prediction that the siege of Samaria would be broken within 24 hours (2 Kings 6:24-7:20); Jesus' prediction of his resurrection being 3 days and nights after his death.
2. "Age of Grace": This implies that previous to this era of Grace, we were in an era where Grace was lacking.  In fact, Grace is a recurring theme throughout the bible from Genesis to Revelation.  There is no Age of Grace.  We follow a God who is the same yesterday, today and tomorrow.  A God of lovingkindness, tenderness, righteousness, justice and judgment; all in One (Jeremiah 9:24).
3. God's prophecies are always encouraging and edifying:  The corollary to this is that God's authentic prophecies don't cause fear and panic.  Is this true?  When reading the account of the Samarian siege, the King's captain doubts Elisha's prophecy.  Elisha predicts that as confirmation, the captain would not live to see it.  I'm sure the captain found it hardly edifying.  When Jesus predicts the fall of Jerusalem he advises his followers then to flee, warning that pregnant and nursing women would be greatly distressed.  Ananias' sudden death is another NT example.  Hardly "uplifting" stuff.
4. The "witness" of other leaders and credible sources:  MacGregor says he would like to think that God would tell the leaders of a church if he had a message such as this.  Yet God seems to make a point of singling out obscure, and unlikely messengers to bear his communiques.  Joseph was from a family of shepherds.  Moses was a Midianite shepherd.  Egyptians looked on shepherds with disdain.  Jesus was a Galilean carpenter.  Urbane Jews looked on Galileans with disdain.  God might be telling the leaders but through his chosen messengers, whoever they might be, whether they are recognized prophets or not. Even the recognized prophets can get it wrong (1 Kings 22:13-28).  I assume that Christian leaders teach their people to hear from God, then why be surprised if God chooses to speak to them?  Eli Wiesel relates the story of his journey to Auschwitz in his book "Night." During the journey a woman has a nervous breakdown and begins to hallucinate that she can see flames and that they were to burn.  She ranted and raved for hours.  Eventually she was beaten into silence.  When he stepped off the train, he saw the flames leaping from the chimney of the crematorium.  He understood.

It's easy to be dismissive.  There is little or no risk of derision.  1 Thessalonians 5:20-21 tells us not to despise prophecies but we should test all things.  Deuteronomy 18:15-22 says that we can tell a prophet after the date and time of the predicted event has past.  So can we test a prophecy in advance of its predicted occurrence?  Yes, we can.  The biblical tests are there.  What do you think they might be?  I look forward to reading your responses.

In the absence of anything else, no matter which side of the debate one might be, it is good risk management to ensure disaster survival kits are well stocked.  If you decide to leave town for a day or two, then what is the cost if nothing happens, a small amount of embarrassment?